A White Christmas In Tennessee?

Yes it is true....forecasters across the state of Tennessee are saying we have "the best chance in years" to see snow on Christmas Day. Some areas have better chances than others obviously. As always, the words "higher elevations" are always used in the winter time as catching the brunt of the winter storms that roll through Tennessee. However, with this approaching winter system, the valleys have an existing chance to see some of the white stuff.

A significant detail to note, at least here in Chattanooga, is the most subtle of suggestions for the presence of moisture to accommodate wintry precipitation started to present itself over a week ago (two weeks out from Christmas). While long-range models vary significantly that far out, the suggestions have remained at least somewhat consistent from day-to-day over the past week, and we now have the strong low pressure system for Christmas-eve in the seven-day forecast.
Here is what news agencies are reporting throughout Tennessee as of December 18:

CHATTANOOGA (WTVC - News Channel 9): A strong low pressure system is expected to bring a substantial chance of rain beginning on Wednesday (December 23), and continuing into Christmas Eve. During the day on Christmas Eve, a shot of cold air is forecast to result in temperatures dropping to the freezing level late in the day. With a good dose of moisture from the system still over the area, precipitation could change over to wet snow mix overnight Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. Chattanooga describes it as "the best chance in years for a white Christmas."

MEMPHIS (WREG - News Channel 3): When asked if Memphians will wake up to snow on Christmas Day, "the answer this time is NOT a resounding NO," says News Channel 3 meteorologist Tim Simpson. A lot less uncertainty this year in the Bluff City...spending Christmas in Memphis warrants a much greater chance of waking up to snow on Christmas Day. The approaching storm system for Christmas week is not only going to bring the precipitation from West to East, but the temperatures will also drop from West to East. As a result Memphis, being the farthest West in Tennessee, will see the rain transition over to all snow much quicker than anywhere else in the state. Memphis describes it as "something exciting to look forward to for Christmas."

NASHVILLE (nashvillewx.com): Long-range models are suggesting a warmer pattern for next weeks storm. This would result in rain and storms moving into the area on Wednesday and Thursday (Christmas Eve). Everyone is in agreement that colder temperatures will arrive during the day on Thursday, but in the case with those in Music City, they feel the moisture will exit the area before temperatures have the chance to make it to the freezing level. News stations across Nashville have mostly rain in the forecast for the duration of the Christmas holiday...however, models are suggesting a possible weak system the day after Christmas which could result in a dusting of snow.

KNOXVILLE: The people of Knoxville do not have much to say right now as they are dealing with a major winter storm themselves this evening. Lets only deal with one storm at a time now folks. This part of Tennessee tends to deal with snow more often due to the presence of the Smoky Mountains, and today is no exception. Forecasters are predicting a strong possibility for the mountains to pick up 10-12 inches overnight (December 18). With the stress a winter storm causes meteorologists, looking at the long-range models to predict a white Christmas is no doubt low on the priority list. The 7-day forecast for Knoxville has been posted, and a 50/50 chance for rain/snow flurries currently stands for Christmas Day. Other maps show the farther east you go, the less chance for snow exists. So Knoxville will likely have a wet Christmas. 

Keep in mind this is still slightly over a week away, and many things can still happen. Take note that weather forecasts are not entirely reliable until they are 48-72 hours away from taking place.

We can dream....but my suggestion would be to not get the hopes set to high right now. I will continue to check up on the models throughout the upcoming weekend.